Offensive Shift in the NFL

With the speed of the game constantly increasing, and players becoming faster, stronger, and more athletic, the NFL has recently began to change.  Offensive shifts have always occurred.  The game is always changing, progressing.  Offenses always seek to gain the upper hand by unique play-calling, changing systems, or utilization of players in a different way.  From the forward pass, to the run-and-gun or west coast offense, to the spread offense, the NFL will always seek for a new look or new emphasis.  Is the NFL showing signs of verging on an offensive change yet again?
How many of us remember the days of the ground and pound running attack? How about the early days of the west coast offense? Or the days of the traditional drop-back passer and lone feature back making up the backbone of an NFL offense?
In the last few years there has been signs of some of the traditional NFL calling cards disappearing.  How many teams still have a lone, do-it-all, feature running back?  Very few.  Let's say the benchmark of a traditional feature back is 300 carries per year.  To account for the players that fall just short of that and have say 295, let's set the mark at 250.  That's just shy of 16 carries per game.  By year let's look at how many players have passed the 250 carry mark since 2002:

2002-19
2003-16
2004-17
2005-17
2006-17
2007-12
2008-13
2009-9
2010-11
2011-10

There is a significant decline.  The number of carries per player are dropping.  While the number of carries per player has gone down, the number of carries across the League per season has seen minimal decline.  This shows 2 things.  With the total number of carries declining, it shows that teams are more frequently becoming pass-oriented, and it shows that teams are more often splitting carries between 2 or more running backs.  This is a definite shift in NFL game planning.  Teams are more often deciding that the most effective way to run their ground attack is through multiple back rotations.  This is very significant.  This not only decreases an individual players numbers, it also decreases the importance of an individual back.  The premier running backs are still that, but more frequently will running backs be paired with a "change-of-pace" back , a "third down back" (a back adept at pass catching and pass blocking), or a "goal-line and short-yardage back."  This could in fact begin to decrease the salaries earned by running backs that fall short of the top tier in player rankings.  This is a more team-effort approach to the running game.  A stable of players constant;y rotating in and out depending on game situation, down and distance, and teams wanting to go with the "hot hand" could easily become the norm in the NFL.

Not only has the ground attack been under a shift in offensive planning, but the passing game is beginning to undergo a significant change as well.  There was a day when NFL teams would only turn to a 3 or 4 receiver set when facing a third and long.  Two receiver sets have always been the base offense.  But examining recent play-calling it can be found that teams are more frequently turning to 3 or 4 receiver sets throughout the course of the game.  The number of 3 receiver sets have increased dramatically in the League in recent years.  It has in fact been listed as a number of teams base offensive set.  The Chicago Bears (long known for being a smash mouth, run first team) ran a 3 receiver set on something in the range of 63% of offensive plays in 2011.  They are not alone in their offensive approach.  Teams are "spreading it out" on a much for frequent basis.  This has had 2 effects. It has caused more receivers to become essential parts of team development, and it has caused more players to become relevant factors in an individual game.  There are few teams in the League today in which the slot receiver is not a very impactful player.

In addition to the receivers being affected by this shift, the quarterbacks too are shifting to a new style of play.  Mobility is becoming an important aspect of modern day quarterbacking.  Teams are scouting an ability of quarterback to get outside the pocket and make plays with their legs. Teams are becoming more diverse in what their looking for in a quarterback.  One needs only to look at the success of Tim Tebow and Cam Newton to see that teams are becoming more open-minded to unorthodox styles of play.

These changes in the NFL have led the League in a new direction.  One that no one can really predict.  Over the last decade the NFL has started this shift, and in the coming years it is likely that the game will continue to evolve.  It's very likely that 10 years from now an NFL game will be something never before seen.  The evolution of NFL offenses is nothing new, but the speed at which it is evolving is certainly increasing.